Sterne Agee analyzes corporate portfolios against FIRC’s Upgrade/Downgrade List, which attempts to identify companies whose rating proxies (composite scores) are unusually strong and unusually weak for either of their current ratings from Moody's or from Standard & Poor's. This identification is carried out largely by statistical means and is based on historical operating data and composite scores.
Sample Up/Down List
APPLIED MATERIALS INC (AMAT)
Upgrade Potential Date Updated: Jun 2006 Composite Score: 72 (Improving) Moody's Rating: A3 (Outlook Stable) S&P Rating: A- (Outlook Stable) Comments: Strong balance sheet; cyclical industry. They have $14.30 of cash & short term investments for every $1 of debt.
AMGEN INC (AMGN)
Upgrade Potential Date Updated: Jun 2006 Composite Score: 66 (Improving) Moody's Rating: A2 (Outlook Stable) S&P Rating: A+ (Outlook Stable) Comments: Moody's outlook from positive to stable on 7/19/05.
Sample LBO Risk List
HOME DEPOT (HD)
Home Depot surfaced recently as a possible LBO candidate. We estimated that the equity component of an LBO would likely require more than $87 billion (paid to existing HD shareholders). The demand for new industrial issues seems to be strong enough to support a public component of $40 billion in 4 tranches that might be $10 billion each. A consortium of banks might provide another $40 billion and the LBO shop might contribute through its own consortium an equity component that would bring the total to somewhere around $100 billion. For now, it looks as though the Home Depot deal will be just a leveraged recapitalization.